Tag Archives: Cleveland Indians

The Baltimore Orioles Are a Good Fit for Ubaldo Jimenez

It took until mid-February, but Ubaldo Jimenez, one of the better starting pitchers on the free-agent market, has finally put pen to paper. Jimenez, who posted a 3.30 ERA, park-adjusted 114 ERA+ and 2.43 K/BB in 2013, is set to sign a four-year, $50 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman.

The deal matches the one the Milwaukee Brewers handed Matt Garza in January, but is perhaps surprising to some given Ubaldo’s struggles from 2011 to 2012 (a combined 5.03 ERA, 82 ERA+ and 1.87 K/BB). Yet, despite the contract-year alarm bells going off, there are a few factors that point to at least a continuation of success in 2014 with the Orioles. Continue reading

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Michael Bourn: Good Deal, But Not For Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians made a surprise splash on the free-agent market, inking speedy outfielder Michael Bourn to a four-year, $48MM deal (with a $12MM vesting option). While most organizations had been turned off by Bourn’s rejected-qualifying offer status, since the Indians’ first round pick is protected, the team only has to surrender a competitive-balance pick. Yet, even though the Indians retained their first-round pick, and added a top-shelf lead-off man and defender for arguably a fair price, it was still a curious move for the should-be re-building franchise.

Over the past four seasons, Bourn has been worth 19.0 WAR–or 4.75 WAR per season. Per Bill Petti, one can assume a 0.5 WAR decline through age 32, and a 0.7 WAR decline through age 34 (the age he’ll be once the full contract expires after 2017). If that’s the case, the 30 year-old might be worth 14.55 WAR throughout his full five-year contract. And with inflation, he could be worth around $82MM during that period of time too. Continue reading

Vinnie Pestano Should Be Turning More Heads

Coutesy of Cleveland.com

In 2010, the Cleveland Indians were in a hurry to get rid of veteran closer Kerry Wood to pave way for youngster Chris Perez. Their urgency was justified, as Perez posted a sensational 1.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 2.18 K/BB. However, Perez’s success was based on an incredibly unsustainable .222 BABIP and alarming 4.13 xFIP. In 2011, Perez has regressed mightily.

Despite a 2.96 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, the young righty’s ability to strikeout batters has completely soured (from 8.7 K/9 to 5.5 K/9), and his already mediocre control (4.0 BB/9 last season) has spiked a few ticks (4.4 BB/9). Even more troubling is his unsustainable luck (.225 BABIP) and eye-popping 5.10 xFIP. Unless Perez can do the impossible and defy all peripherals for a career, his bubble will explode. And when it does, Vinnie Pestano should be the Indians closer. Continue reading